On 10 February, President Sadyr Japarov dismissed his long-time ally, Colonel-General Kamchybek Tashiyev, from his post as head of the State Committee for National Security (SCNS). Three of Tashiyev’s deputies were also removed from office.
The dismissal followed an appeal issued one day earlier by a group of 75 public figures, including academics and former officials, who called on President Japarov and parliamentary speaker Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu (who subsequently resigned) to hold an early presidential election.
The removal of Kamchybek Tashiyev marks a significant shift in Kyrgyzstan’s internal power configuration. For several years, Tashiyev and Sadyr Japarov were widely perceived as a consolidated ruling tandem, particularly since their rise to power after the 2020 political upheaval. Tashiyev, as head of the security services, was considered one of the most influential actors in the country’s political system.
The appeal for early presidential elections exposed latent tensions surrounding the interpretation of constitutional term limits. Under the previous Constitution, Japarov was elected for a single six-year term without the possibility of re-election; the subsequent 2021 constitutional reform introduced a five-year term with the right to re-election, creating legal ambiguity. The public appeal appears to have intensified political speculation about “dual power” and questions of legitimacy.
Official statements suggest that the initiators of the appeal were accused of attempting to exploit Tashiyev’s name to create divisions within the ruling elite. The subsequent detention of several initiators indicates a securitised response to what the authorities framed as destabilising actions. Japarov’s request to the Constitutional Court for formal clarification demonstrates an effort to institutionalise the resolution of the dispute and pre-empt broader political confrontation.
Our Forecast:
In the short term, President Japarov is likely to consolidate personal control over key state institutions, particularly the security apparatus, reducing the risk of internal elite rivalry. The Constitutional Court’s interpretation will be decisive:
- If it rules in favour of completing the original six-year term, political stability may be preserved in the near term, albeit with continued public debate over legitimacy.
- If it supports the case for early elections, Kyrgyzstan may enter a period of managed political transition, with increased elite competition but within a constitutional framework.
Overall, the dismissal of Tashiyev signals a potential reconfiguration of power rather than immediate systemic instability. However, given Kyrgyzstan’s history of political volatility, unresolved disputes over legitimacy and succession could trigger renewed tensions if not carefully managed.
