Joint US-Nigerian counterterrorism operations launched in northeastern Nigeria in mid-May appear to have significantly disrupted the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), with evidence pointing to losses among senior commanders, reduced attack activity, media disruptions and growing uncertainty within the group. The operation reportedly killed senior Islamic State figure Abu Bilal al-Manuki and eliminated more than 200 militants, according to US and Nigerian officials.
The military campaign targeted ISWAP positions in Borno State and the Lake Chad Basin, focusing on logistics hubs, infrastructure and assembly points. Nigerian authorities said around 175 militants were killed, while US Africa Command later reported that more than 200 terrorists had been eliminated during the joint operations.
Several indicators suggest the offensive affected ISWAP’s operational capabilities. The group, which had been issuing attack claims almost daily before the operation, stopped publishing claims for roughly two weeks after the raids. Although attacks continued, subsequent claims were released with delays and reflected a lower operational tempo. Coverage of ISWAP activity in Islamic State propaganda outlets also declined sharply during the same period.
Islamic State publications acknowledged that a media facility had been targeted during the operation, reporting casualties among media personnel. Analysts note that ISWAP had become increasingly important to the group’s global propaganda efforts, accounting for more than two-thirds of Islamic State attacks worldwide in April.
The operation may also have created a leadership vacuum. While Islamic State has not formally confirmed al-Manuki’s death, it has referenced the killing of a senior commander in recent editorials. No successor has been publicly identified, and reports indicate at least one senior ISWAP figure declined a leadership role amid concerns over intelligence-led military operations and airstrikes.
Further signs of internal strain emerged in early June when ISWAP-linked sources unusually warned supporters against traveling to the Lake Chad region to join the group, citing dangerous conditions and restricted movement. Such warnings contrast with the Islamic State’s longstanding efforts to encourage foreign fighters to relocate to its African branches.
ISWAP was already facing pressure from rival Boko Haram factions, which analysts say have challenged its control over parts of the Lake Chad region in recent years. Seasonal factors may also be contributing to the recent slowdown, as annual rains typically limit movement and reduce militant activity across the basin.
The coming weeks will show whether the disruption is temporary or develops into a deeper setback for ISWAP. Much may depend on the group’s ability to restore leadership, maintain propaganda operations and sustain attacks while facing continued military pressure from Nigerian and US-backed forces.
