The second round of indirect US-Iran talks is scheduled to take place in Geneva on 17 February, with Oman continuing as the host. The Iranian delegation will be led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who arrived in Geneva on 16 February.
Iranian media reactions ahead of the talks are divided: reformist outlets express cautious optimism for a potential agreement, while hardline publications emphasize military deterrence and reject any discussion of Iran’s missile program. Key statements include:
- Abdolrahim Mousavi, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, warned that any military confrontation would be a “lesson” for the US.
- Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, stated that Tehran will not negotiate its missile program and that attempts to raise this issue could jeopardize the talks.
- Hardline media criticized Deputy Foreign Minister Hamid Qanbari for suggesting the US could benefit economically from a deal.
The broader regional context remains tense due to the significant US military presence across the Middle East. Key points include:
- Approximately 40,000–50,000 US troops are stationed in over a dozen countries, with major bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, and Syria.
- The US has recently redeployed or withdrawn some personnel amid rising tensions with Iran.
- Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have publicly ruled out allowing their territory to be used for attacks on Iran, reflecting concern over potential retaliatory strikes and regional destabilization.
- Iranian leadership continues to signal readiness for decisive military response if attacked, including potential action by regional proxies and threats to energy infrastructure and navigation routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Our Forecast:
- Diplomatic Outlook: While cautious optimism exists among some reformist Iranian factions, hardline stances — especially regarding missile programs—are likely to constrain the negotiations. A partial or limited agreement addressing sanctions relief and economic issues is possible, but a comprehensive deal covering military capabilities appears unlikely.
- Military Risk: The probability of an immediate full-scale US strike remains low due to high economic, political, and military costs. However, selective or targeted strikes cannot be entirely ruled out, particularly if diplomatic progress stalls or regional incidents escalate.
- Regional Implications: Even without direct conflict, the ongoing US-Iran tension will continue to affect Gulf security, energy markets, and maritime navigation. Gulf states’ cautious stance suggests that they aim to avoid direct involvement while balancing alignment with US strategic interests.
Conclusion
Diplomacy will likely remain the primary tool in the near term, but the volatile mix of hardline Iranian positions and substantial US military presence keeps the risk of limited military escalation non-negligible.
