On 12 February 2026, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of South Sudan, Akuei Bona Malwal, met with United States Ambassador Michael Adler in Juba. The discussions centered on strengthening bilateral relations between South Sudan and the United States, with particular attention to managing the return of South Sudanese nationals recently deported from the United States. The meeting signals continued diplomatic engagement between the two countries amid ongoing internal security challenges in South Sudan.
The broader context of South Sudan’s domestic situation remains fragile. Renewed clashes between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO), led by suspended First Vice-President Riek Machar, have intensified in the eastern state of Jonglei since December 2025.
These clashes are rooted in longstanding political disagreements, unresolved ethnic tensions, and local security dynamics. Government forces report that the SPLM/A-IO has expanded its influence in parts of eastern and northern Jonglei, capturing towns and military garrisons, while signalling intentions to advance toward the capital, Juba. Although the opposition has publicly denied immediate plans to march on the capital, the situation has heightened fears of renewed large-scale conflict.
The conflict reflects deeper structural weaknesses in South Sudan’s political transition. The 2018 Revitalised Peace Agreement, designed to end civil war and establish a power-sharing government, has largely stalled. Key provisions, including the unification of armed forces and security sector reforms, have not been implemented, undermining the legitimacy of the transitional government.
Opposition supporters view Machar’s 2025 arrest and treason trial as politically motivated, exacerbating distrust between the parties. In turn, government officials portray the opposition as provocateurs challenging state authority, creating a cycle of confrontation that is further complicated by ethnic divisions between the Dinka-led government and the Nuer-aligned opposition.
Local militias and armed youth groups operating along ethnic lines amplify the conflict dynamics, particularly in Jonglei, a region historically prone to inter-communal violence. Factors such as cattle raiding, land disputes, and political representation continue to drive insecurity and complicate military operations.
While government forces retain control over most urban centers, rural and semi-urban areas in the north and east increasingly fall under SPLM/A-IO and allied militia control. Reports indicate that the opposition has mobilized reinforcements, potentially numbering 10,000 fighters, prompting the government to deploy additional troops with orders to “disband the rebellion” within a strict timeframe.
The humanitarian impact has been severe. Civil society groups estimate that at least one million people have been displaced across Jonglei, Upper Nile, Warrap, Eastern Equatoria, and Central Equatoria states. Aid operations have been disrupted, exacerbating food insecurity in a country already facing chronic hunger. The United Nations and international diplomats have called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and inclusive dialogue, warning that continued fighting could isolate entire communities.
Our Forecast:
The risk of escalation remains substantial. While both the government and opposition are weaker than during the 2013 civil war, recent troop movements and inflammatory rhetoric suggest a volatile environment. The SPLM/A-IO’s internal divisions and President Salva Kiir’s political vulnerabilities—including fiscal pressures and frequent government reshuffles—may influence future military and political strategies.
The trajectory of the conflict will depend on the political will of the Juba administration, regional mediation efforts, and the capacity of both sides to step back from large-scale confrontation. Failure to achieve a negotiated settlement could see localized clashes in Jonglei and surrounding states intensify, with a potential spillover into broader civil conflict, particularly as South Sudan approaches scheduled elections in December 2026.
South Sudan faces a complex interplay of diplomatic engagement, internal political fragility, and security challenges. While the government seeks to maintain stability through military deployment and international cooperation, unresolved political grievances and ethnic tensions continue to threaten the country’s fragile peace. Sustained regional and international attention, combined with a commitment to political compromise, will be critical to preventing further escalation and ensuring the protection of civilian populations.
