On 13 February, US President Donald Trump announced plans to visit Venezuela, stating that the date of the trip had not yet been determined. He reiterated his satisfaction with the country’s interim leadership.
The announcement followed a recent visit to Caracas by the US Energy Secretary and coincided with the administration’s decision to lift additional sanctions that had previously restricted investment in Venezuela’s oil sector. The move signals Washington’s intention to deepen engagement with Venezuela’s energy industry.
The planned visit by Donald Trump reflects a broader US strategy to consolidate influence over Venezuelan oil resources and strengthen its position in the Western Hemisphere. Previous US actions regarding Venezuela have been interpreted in China as an effort to curb Beijing’s influence, limit its access to strategic energy supplies, and reinforce US leverage in global oil markets.
China, previously the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude, has faced increased uncertainty due to US control over Venezuelan oil flows and the broader geopolitical context, including sanctions on Russia and Iran. In response, Beijing has accelerated diversification efforts, notably expanding oil and gas cooperation with Canada and advancing its long-term energy transition agenda. Engagement with Ottawa has intensified, particularly after the completion of new export infrastructure linking Canadian crude to Pacific markets.
At the strategic level, Chinese analysts view US actions in Venezuela as part of a wider attempt to reinforce the dollar’s dominance in global energy trade and to consolidate geopolitical control over critical supply nodes in the Americas.
Our Forecast:
In the short term, US–Venezuela rapprochement is likely to reshape oil trade flows in the Western Hemisphere, potentially reducing China’s direct access to Venezuelan crude. However, given that Venezuelan imports account for a relatively limited share of China’s overall energy mix, the immediate macroeconomic impact on Beijing is expected to remain manageable.
China will likely continue diversifying its energy sources, strengthening cooperation with Canada and other suppliers, while simultaneously accelerating investment in non-fossil energy to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. Over the medium term, energy competition between the United States and China in the Western Hemisphere is expected to intensify, particularly in resource-rich states where political alignment and infrastructure control directly influence global supply dynamics.
Overall, Trump’s planned visit underscores a more assertive US energy diplomacy in the region, which may further deepen strategic rivalry with China in global energy governance and market influence.
