Andy Burnham is widely expected to become the United Kingdom’s next Prime Minister following the resignation of Keir Starmer, who stepped down after Labour’s disappointing performance in recent local elections triggered growing unrest within the party. Burnham is now poised to take over at a time of mounting security challenges, with defence spending, NATO commitments and national resilience expected to become key priorities of his government.
Burnham’s rise marks a significant moment for Labour. The former Greater Manchester mayor has publicly acknowledged mistakes in his support for the 2003 Iraq War, stating in 2024 that he would not have backed the intervention if given the chance again. Since then, his views on defence and foreign policy have evolved alongside a rapidly changing global security environment.
If confirmed as Prime Minister, Burnham will inherit a series of major challenges. These include maintaining Britain’s leading role within NATO, supporting Ukraine against ongoing Russian aggression, managing relations with a more transactional US administration and securing public support for increased defence spending amid economic pressures.
Burnham is expected to maintain existing NATO spending commitments and could pursue higher levels of defence investment. Pressure has been growing to increase military funding as the UK seeks to meet long-term alliance targets and address capability gaps identified in defence planning.
A defining feature of a Burnham government is likely to be its emphasis on resilience alongside traditional defence measures. As mayor, Burnham led Manchester’s response to the 2017 Arena bombing and later launched a long-term resilience strategy for the city. During the Covid-19 pandemic, Manchester’s preparedness measures received international recognition, and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Burnham helped establish the UNBROKEN Cities Network to share lessons on crisis management and recovery.
On domestic security issues, only limited changes are expected to the controversial Northern Ireland Troubles legislation despite concerns from both military veterans and victims’ groups. Greater attention is likely to focus on accelerating measures designed to improve the UK’s readiness for future emergencies and hybrid threats.
Burnham has also advocated longer-term government planning, including multi-year funding settlements for defence. Such an approach could provide greater certainty for the armed forces and defence industry as Britain seeks to strengthen its military capabilities and adapt to an increasingly unstable international environment.
