Islamic State (IS) concentrated the vast majority of its operations in Africa during the first half of 2026, with nearly 90% of its claimed attacks taking place on the continent, according to a new analysis of the group’s activity and propaganda. At the same time, Syria remained the group’s main strategic focus in its messaging, despite lower operational activity, while attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan continued to decline.
The analysis shows that Africa dominated both IS operations and propaganda. The group’s branches in Nigeria, the Sahel, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia and Mozambique accounted for most claimed attacks, with IS highlighting territorial gains in parts of the Sahel and eastern DR Congo. However, some African branches also faced setbacks, including reported losses of senior commanders during joint US-Nigerian operations against ISWAP.
Although Africa generated most of the group’s military activity, Syria remained central to IS’s long-term strategy. Nearly 40% of editorials in the group’s weekly publication al-Naba focused on Syria, where IS repeatedly urged fighters to target government forces. The group claimed 30 attacks in Syria during the first six months of the year, making it its most active theater outside sub-Saharan Africa, though operations remained irregular and largely low-level.
IS also continued to encourage attacks in Western countries through its propaganda. The group used major international events, including the FIFA Club World Cup, to call for lone-actor attacks and urged supporters to target public venues while promoting IS content online. It also portrayed the US-Israeli war on Iran as an opportunity for its adversaries to weaken one another, while urging Sunni Muslims not to support Iran.
By contrast, IS activity remained minimal in Iraq and Afghanistan, with only two claimed attacks in each country, extending a broader downward trend. Pakistan saw a modest increase in attacks, including high-profile sectarian violence, but IS’s Afghanistan-based Khorasan branch appeared significantly weaker than in previous years.
The findings suggest that IS is increasingly relying on its African branches to sustain operational momentum while continuing to portray Syria as essential to its long-term ambitions. The group’s continued propaganda efforts and calls for attacks abroad indicate that, despite regional setbacks and declining activity in its former strongholds, it remains capable of adapting its strategy and seeking opportunities to expand its influence.
