Armenia’s parliamentary election on 7 June has become the focus of growing tensions between Yerevan and Moscow, as Russia steps up economic and political pressure on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government. The Kremlin is seeking to curb Armenia’s drift toward the European Union and the United States, using trade restrictions, public warnings and alleged influence operations aimed at strengthening pro-Russian forces ahead of the vote.
The pressure campaign intensified after a series of high-profile Western engagements in Armenia. In May, Pashinyan hosted the first Armenia-EU summit and welcomed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who signed a strategic partnership agreement with Yerevan. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Armenia would face significant costs if it pursued closer integration with the West.
Russia has since restricted imports of several Armenian products, including fruit, vegetables, flowers, wine and brandy. Moscow has also signalled that Armenia could lose access to discounted energy supplies, investment and other economic benefits linked to membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Putin has argued that leaving the bloc could cost Armenia economic advantages equivalent to roughly 14% of its GDP.
Despite these measures, public support for Russia in Armenia appears to be weakening. A May survey found that only 35% of Armenians viewed Russia as the country’s most important political partner, close to a historic low. At the same time, Armenia remains economically dependent on Russia, which accounted for about 35% of its foreign trade last year, compared with around 11% for the EU.
Alongside economic pressure, concerns have emerged over alleged efforts to influence the election through Armenia’s large diaspora community in Russia. Investigators and activists reported initiatives to help eligible voters travel from Russia to Armenia for election day, drawing comparisons with tactics previously alleged in Moldova. Analysts say the apparent objective is not to remove Pashinyan from power, but to strengthen pro-Russian representation in parliament.
Researchers have also documented a surge in pro-Kremlin disinformation targeting Armenia. According to monitoring groups, hundreds of fake videos and fabricated media reports have circulated online, promoting claims that Armenia is under Western control, preparing for conflict with Russia or planning to replace Russia’s military presence with foreign forces.
Analysts believe the Kremlin is unlikely to succeed in unseating Pashinyan, whose party continues to lead opinion polls. However, the campaign highlights the economic, political and informational tools Moscow can still deploy as Armenia seeks to diversify its partnerships and reduce long-standing dependence on Russia.
