On 14 February, large-scale rallies organised by the Iranian diaspora were held worldwide at the initiative of exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi. Social media users highlighted the significant turnout, drawing comparisons with the official rallies in Iran marking the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on 11 February.
According to online sources, the rally in Toronto reportedly gathered up to 350,000 participants, making it one of the largest events. Commentators emphasised the peaceful nature of the demonstrations, noting the absence of violent incidents and stating that local police forces commended the conduct of participants. This narrative contrasted with efforts by Iranian authorities to portray Pahlavi’s supporters as prone to violence.
The global rallies demonstrate a high degree of mobilisation within the Iranian diaspora and confirm Reza Pahlavi’s ability to position himself as a central figure in the external opposition movement. The scale of participation–particularly in Munich, Toronto and Los Angeles – indicates sustained international visibility of the Iranian protest movement following the domestic crackdown.
However, the events also revealed significant fragmentation within the opposition. Parallel demonstrations by republican groups in Brussels and by supporters of the Mojahedin-e Khalq underscored ideological disagreements regarding Iran’s future political system. While Pahlavi advocates a transitional leadership model leading to a democratic process, rival factions reject any restoration of monarchy and promote alternative republican or organisational frameworks.
Our Forecast:
In the near term, diaspora-led mobilisation is likely to continue, especially around major international events and symbolic dates. Reza Pahlavi will probably seek to consolidate his status as a unifying transitional figure and intensify efforts to secure international political backing.
Nevertheless, unless opposition groups overcome internal divisions and articulate a coherent, inclusive political roadmap, their capacity to translate external pressure into tangible structural change inside Iran will remain limited. The Islamic Republic is therefore expected to retain internal control in the short to medium term, despite ongoing reputational and diplomatic pressure abroad.
