Ukrainian officials are warning that the country faces a difficult winter as Russia is expected to target energy, heating and water infrastructure, while a shortage of ballistic interceptors leaves Ukraine vulnerable to further attacks. At the same time, authorities and experts say preparations and repairs should prevent the worst-case scenarios promoted by some pro-Russian media and AI-generated accounts.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on 26 July that Ukraine was preparing for a “very difficult winter”. Davyd Arakhamiya, head of the pro-presidential Servant of the People party, called it potentially the hardest winter in the country’s history. Another lawmaker urged Ukrainians to prepare an evacuation plan in case conditions deteriorate.
Russia damaged or destroyed more than 80% of Ukraine’s power generation last winter, according to Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal. Ukraine has since repaired 4.8GW of generating capacity and is working on another 4GW.
The energy system can currently provide 15GW during peak consumption. Nuclear plants account for 40% of that capacity, thermal power plants for 25% and hydropower plants for 15%. Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said the capital was 90% ready for the heating season.
Experts expect possible long power cuts but say Ukraine’s experience in repairing damaged infrastructure should help limit their duration.
Ukraine has accumulated 14.3 billion cubic metres of gas, compared with 11 billion cubic metres at the same point last year. Shmyhal said the country could potentially import up to 20 billion cubic metres from Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary.
Coal supplies at thermal power plants are also reported to be ahead of expectations. The Energy Ministry is increasingly using gas as a reserve fuel when power facilities are damaged. Experts say gas infrastructure is harder for Russia to destroy completely and can be restored more easily than damaged electricity infrastructure.
Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia could target pumping stations, dams, hydroelectric plants and other water infrastructure. In May, Zelensky said three Russian missiles had been directed at a water supply facility in Kyiv. Ukrainian officials said air defences prevented damage that could have disrupted its operation, while work is underway to protect the facility from future attacks.
Water experts say a major strike would not necessarily stop Kyiv’s entire water system. They argue that completely cutting off tap water would require attacks on the city’s numerous pumping stations.
Food supplies are also expected to face pressure from strikes on warehouses and logistics facilities. The Association of Ukrainian Retailers predicts temporary shortages or higher prices for perishable products such as meat, fish, dairy, fruit and vegetables, but does not expect a systemic food deficit. Economists likewise expect some price increases rather than widespread shortages.
Pro-Russian Telegram channels have predicted systemic hunger, freezing homes, sewage overflows and a wider humanitarian disaster. Investigative website Texty.org.ua identified 33 TikTok videos with a combined 1.5 million views promoting claims that Ukrainian authorities were unprepared for winter.
Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation has also reported AI-generated TikTok videos featuring people posing as Ukrainian soldiers and urging citizens to leave the country. The centre described them as Russian propaganda tactics and has urged Ukrainians not to panic.
Ukraine is therefore entering the winter with significant risks to electricity, heating, water and food supplies, but with substantial repairs and fuel reserves already in place. Experts cited in the article expect disruptions and possible shortages, but not the large-scale humanitarian catastrophe described by pro-Russian media.
