Islamic State (IS) has urged Iraqi Sunnis to seize what it called a “valuable opportunity” following the completion of the US troop withdrawal from Iraq on 30 September, portraying the departure as a chance for the group to regain strength and warning of a new phase in Sunni-Shia conflict.
The call appeared in the latest edition of IS’s weekly newspaper al-Naba, released on 8 October. The group claimed that the US and its anti-IS coalition allies had “failed” to defeat its militants and urged Sunnis to join the IS “camp”. The editorial also warned that Shia militias and political groups could use the withdrawal to increase pressure on Sunni communities.
The statement comes amid a recent increase in IS attack claims in Iraq. The group claimed five attacks in September, compared with three in total between January and August. An al-Naba report published alongside the editorial highlighted the recent attacks and warned that more could follow.
IS presented the US withdrawal as the beginning of a “new stage” in Iraq’s sectarian conflict. The group argued that it was the only force capable of defending Iraqi Sunnis and called on those who had previously rejected its cause to join its ranks. It also portrayed the coalition’s past campaign against IS-held territory as a broader assault on Sunni communities, citing deaths, injuries and displacement.
The editorial also sought to portray the withdrawal as evidence of a long-term US failure. IS claimed that two decades of fighting had brought “decisive” blows to coalition forces despite their superior military capabilities. It praised its remaining militants in Iraq and suggested that their continued activity could restore some of the group’s past prominence in the region.
The shift in rhetoric is notable because IS has recently highlighted the activities of its branches in sub-Saharan Africa as examples for militants elsewhere. In the latest editorial, however, the Iraq branch was presented as an example to other IS fighters, potentially reflecting the group’s expectations of renewed activity there.
IS also accused the coalition of expanding its campaign into Africa and predicted that operations there would eventually fail, as it claims happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The group’s latest messaging indicates that it intends to use the US withdrawal to encourage recruitment and increased militant activity in Iraq. The recent rise in claimed attacks and the emphasis on the Iraq branch suggest that IS sees the post-withdrawal period as an opportunity to rebuild its position, although the editorial itself does not establish whether the group will be able to achieve a broader resurgence.
